Quarterly Briefing

The Architecture of
Financial Survival

As interest rates plateau and credit risk tightens, the definition of corporate safety is being rewritten. Our latest analysis explores the hidden mechanics of bank control.

Covenant Cliff Analysis
Flagship Analysis 12 min read

The Covenant Cliff

Solvency is no longer defined by your ability to pay interest. It is defined by "The Triggers." An investigation into how banks use the Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio (FCCR) to take control of solvent companies.

The Reset: Why 1.25x FCCR is the new insolvency floor.
The Trap: How IFRS 9 triggers lifetime provisioning.
The Cost: Monetizing distress through waiver fees.
Featuring: Interactive Model
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Strategic Briefings

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The Debt Spiral
Corporate Finance

The Debt Spiral: Funding Losses

When borrowing stops funding growth and starts funding survival. The mechanics of the "Loss-Funding" spiral.

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Activity Trap
Productivity

The Activity Trap

Why organisations confuse activity with progress.

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Dam and River Metaphor
Strategy

Dual-Role Finances

Why the "Time-Mismatch" creates fragility, and how to engineer the "Two Wallet" architecture.

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Structured Credit Analysis
Strategy

SMEs as Structured Credit

Why banks treat small businesses as inventory for securitisation. The 'Capital Charge' problem.

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Refinancing Trap
Finance

The Refinancing Business Model

When the product is debt and the customer is the lender. The shift from repayment to perpetual fees.

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Bank Liquidation
Strategy

Why Banks Prefer Liquidation

The mathematical reason banks liquidate SMEs instead of supporting them. IFRS 9 & Capital Density.

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Liquidity Stress
Strategy

Liquidity Stress & Strategy

How liquidity stress rewrites strategy before leaders notice. The "Shadow Strategy" phenomenon.

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Growth Trap
Strategy

Why Growth Hides Insolvency

Profit is an accounting fiction; cash is reality. A structural analysis of the "Growth Trap".

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Gig vs Corporate
Analysis

Gig vs. Corporate

The labour market looks strong, but income security is crumbling. A strategic analysis of the hybrid shift.

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Psychology

The Mental Game of Cash Flow

Why liquidity pressure acts as a cognitive tax on founders, reducing decision quality by 40%.

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Key Trends

The Great De-Leveraging

Why paying down debt has suddenly topped the agenda for 73% of SME directors.

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Institutional Trust

Rebuilding Financial Trust

Bridging the widening gap between banking institutions and the SME ecosystem.

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Analysis Archive