Bank Liquidation Hero
Strategic Briefing

Why Banks
Prefer Liquidation

An analysis of IFRS 9 mechanics, capital density, and the "Recovery Economics" of 2026.
The Kill Calculation • Provisioning Cliff • RWA Density

SimplifyNumbers.com
Strategic Briefing • Strategy Series

Why Banks Prefer Liquidating SMEs Rather Than Supporting Them

Executive Summary

For SME founders, bank behaviour often feels contradictory: public messaging promises support, yet operational reality favours rapid liquidation. This disconnect is not driven by malice but by regulatory mathematics. Our analysis of the 2024–2026 regulatory landscape confirms that the shift to IFRS 9/CECL "Expected Credit Loss" models has created a "Provisioning Cliff." Once a loan migrates from Stage 2 (Watchlist) to Stage 3 (Default), banks must book lifetime losses immediately, devastating their P&L.

Combined with the high operational cost of human workout teams and the density of Risk-Weighted Assets (RWA) for distressed loans, the rational economic choice for a bank is frequently to crystallise a loss today rather than pursue an uncertain recovery tomorrow.

Provisioning Hit
Front-Loaded
IFRS 9 forces banks to book 100% of lifetime expected losses the moment a loan defaults.
Workout OpEx
Prohibitive
Restructuring a £2m loan costs the same in legal/admin fees as a £20m loan, killing ROI.
Recovery Strategy
Speed Over Value
Time-value-of-money logic prefers 50p today over a potential 70p in three years.

Core Strategic Insight

The "Support Unit" Paradox: While banks label their distressed teams as "Business Support" or "Special Assets," their primary KPI is often not the survival of the borrower, but the velocity of capital recycling. The regulatory cost of holding a distressed asset on the balance sheet now exceeds the potential upside of a successful turnaround for loans under £5m.

Diagnostic Analysis: The Mechanics of Liquidation

The perception that banks act against their own interests by liquidating potentially viable companies is incorrect. Under current frameworks, liquidation is often the profit-maximising decision. This behaviour is driven by three specific mechanisms: the IFRS 9 "Cliff," RWA Density, and the Fixed Cost of Workout.

1. The IFRS 9 "Provisioning Cliff"

The most significant structural shift in the last decade has been the move from "Incurred Loss" (booking a loss only when the company dies) to "Expected Credit Loss". This creates a three-stage trap where "Stage 2" (Underperforming) requires booking lifetime expected losses immediately. The bank has effectively already taken the P&L hit; liquidation simply crystallises the tax write-off.

2. RWA and Capital Density

Distressed loans consume immense regulatory capital. A defaulted loan can attract risk weights of 150%+. For a bank treasurer, liquidating—even at a loss—frees up that capital to be redeployed into new, profitable lending. The opportunity cost of holding distress is higher than the loss from selling it.

3. Fixed Costs

Genuine turnaround requires "high touch" management. The legal and admin costs for a £2m loan are similar to a £50m loan. Banks effectively run a triage system: loans too small to absorb workout costs are processed for exit.

Exhibits

Exhibit 1: The "Kill Calculation" Mechanism
Mechanism Map
Stage 1: Performing Provision: 12-month ECL Stage 2: The Cliff Provision: LIFETIME Stage 3: Default Strategy: EXIT DECISION LOGIC: Workout Cost (OpEx) > Net Recovery Value LIQUIDATION
Exhibit 2: The "Zone of Abandonment" Matrix
Interactive Diagnostic

Click quadrants to reveal bank strategy.

Operational Complexity
☠️
THE KILL ZONE
High Complexity, Small Loan
🏰
TOO BIG TO FAIL
High Complexity, High Value
🤖
AUTOMATED EXIT
Low Complexity, Small Loan
🤝
NEGOTIATION
Low Complexity, High Value
Potential Recovery Value

10-Step Implementation Roadmap

How to navigate the "Support Unit". Click steps to expand.

Closing Signal

The era of "relationship banking" for distressed SMEs is effectively over. It has been replaced by a regulatory environment that penalises patience. The goal is not to convince the bank of your vision, but to prove mathematically that your exit plan offers a higher Net Present Value (NPV) than their liquidation process.